OPINION POLLS - Indonesia's presidential election

(Reuters) - Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is ahead of rivals Jusuf Kalla and Megawati Sukarnoputri in the run-up to presidential elections, and looks set to win in the first round, on July 8, two new polls showed.

Yudhoyono and his vice presidential candidate, former central bank governor Boediono, are up against two other teams. Current Vice President Kalla is running with former general Wiranto, while former President Megawati is running with ex-general Prabowo Subianto.

A new poll by the Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate (SSS) put Yudhoyono-Boediono in the lead with 52.5 percent, ahead of Megawati-Prabowo with 24.4 percent and Kalla-Wiranto with 20.2 percent, while 2.9 percent of those surveyed were undecided.

The survey was conducted in 33 provinces between June 5-9, involved 2,496 respondents, and had a margin of error of +/-1.96 percent, SSS said.

A separate survey, by Reform Institute (RI), showed that the Yudhoyono-Boediono team had support of 62.92 percent, while Megawati-Prabowo had 16.99 percent and Kalla-Wiranto had 11.31 percent. It said 5.36 percent had not registered to vote while

3.41 percent do not intend to vote.

The survey polled 2,519 respondents in 33 provinces between May 25 and June 2, and had a margin of error of 1.96 percent.

Under Indonesia's election law, if a single candidate fails to win more than 50 percent of the vote, a run-off is held between the two leading candidates.

Some analysts have questioned the reliability of some of the polling agencies in Indonesia, saying they may be linked to particular candidates or parties.

To track the candidates' ratings, Reuters has compiled a table of polls showing support for Yudhoyono-Boediono (SBY-B), Megawati-Prabowo (MS-PS) and Kalla-Wiranto (JK-W).

For each survey, the polling agency and date that the survey was conducted are shown alongside. All numbers show percentage support and are rounded up to one decimal place.

Presidential elections: pct support in opinion polls

SBY-B MS-PS JK-W U D UR

SSS 6/09 52.5 24.4 20.2 2.9 - -

RI 5-6/09 62.9 17 11.3 n/a 3.4 5.4

PKSPSPI 6/09 37.1 31.5 26.6 4.9 - -

LSI^ 5-6/09 63.1 16.4 5.9 14.6 - -

LP3ES 6/09 54.9 9.7 6.8 27 - -

LRI 6/09 33 20.1 29.3 17.6 - -

LSI 5/09 71 16 8 5 - -

LSN 5/09 67.1 11.8 6.4 13 1.6 -

LSI 4-5/09 70 21 3* n/a n/a -

* The survey polled a pairing of Jusuf Kalla and former military chief Endriartono Sutarto

U: undecided

D: do not intend to vote

UR: unregistered voters

Polling agencies:

SSS Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate

RI Reform Institute

PKSPSPI Centre for Analysis of Development of Indonesian Social

Politics

LSI^ Indonesia Circle Survey

LP3ES Institute for Economy and Social Research, Education and

Information

LRI Research Information Agency

LSI Indonesian Survey Institute

LSN National Survey Board

Poor v big business in Indonesia presidential battle

By Girish Sawlani for Radio Australia

Indonesian presidential candidate Megawati Sukarnoputri and her team are campaigning on a new deal for the nation's agricultural poor, who they say for too long have been downtrodden by a focus on big business.

Ms Megawati's vice-presidential partner is Prabowo Subianto, a former army general.

He told Radio Australia's Connect Asia program the majority of Indonesians are peasants, farmers or other low-income workers - but of a national budget of $US100 billion, only $US1.6 billion is allocated to the agriculture sector.

"That's $1.6 billion for 60 per cent of the Indonesian people who live from the agriculture sector," he said during campaigning in Yogyakarta.

"That is injustice in our opinion. And we say that this will create unrest and this cannot hold, this is not sustainable.

"We cannot have a small group of people who are rich and around them a sea of poverty.

"We're not against big business, I'm also a businessman. What we're saying is there must be synergy, the big business should spend on its own and should not eat up the resources that can be allocated for a more equitable distribution of wealth. "

The ex-general's Great Indonesia Movement Party won 4.5 per cent of the votes during parliamentary elections in April, and although current president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is strongly favoured to win the presidency again, Mr Prabowo believes he and Ms Megawati will perform well.

Ms Prabowo says he and former president Ms Megawati believe the rural sector should have at least 15 to 20 per cent spent on it.

"More spending in the villages, more spending for schools, more spending for (health) clinics, job creation - and we don't believe in hand-outs," he said.

"We have to create employment, and in our opinion we still have the resources to create this employment through the agriculture sector."

While head of the Special Forces, Kopassus, Mr Prabowo was accused of human rights abuses, but he does not see this as affecting chances of victory.

"Eleven years ago a lot of accusations were held against me, none of them have been proved. I've faced it direct," he said.

"I think the main problems of Indonesia is disempowerment, poverty, inequality, that's the main problem. "

Indonesia's Presidential Campaign Begins Quietly

By Katie Hamann (VOA)
Jakarta
03 June 2009

Indonesia's presidential election race has begun. Although many voters and political analysts in the country expect the popular President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to win re-election, there are concerns about the running mates of his main rivals.

There was little ceremony as Indonesia's presidential campaign officially began this week.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was in South Korea for an Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting. So his chief campaign rivals, former President Megawati Sukarnoputri and current Vice-President Jusef Kalla, have been content to meet with party members and plot their next moves.

Controversial running mates

Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) chairperson Megawati Sukarnoputri (l) with her running mate Prabowo Subianto during a draw at General Election Commission office in Jakarta, 30 May 2009
Democratic Party of Struggle chairperson Megawati Sukarnoputri (l) with her running mate Prabowo Subianto during a draw at General Election Commission office in Jakarta, 30 May 2009
Both challengers have selected controversial running mates. Ms. Megawati has taken former General Prabowo Subianto as her teammate, while Kalla's running mate is former General Wiranto, who goes by one name.

Many human rights activists regard both men as human rights abusers for their actions when East Timor voted to become independent of Indonesia, and in other cases. Prabowo is barred from entering the United States because of his reputation for violating human rights.

Indria Fernida is the deputy coordinator of Indonesia's leading human rights advocacy group, Kontras.

"Wiranto, he is [was] chief of the national police when the referendum in East Timor [took place] so he is responsible for all the riots in East Timor," said Fernida. "Prabowo was responsible for the disappearance [of] activists in 1998 and 1999 before [former President] Suharto's falling."

She says the families of those who disappeared or were killed on the orders of Wiranto and Prabowo are deeply angered by their candidacies.

"We just visit one of the victims a few days ago; her son was disappeared in 1998," said Fernida. "And she was very angry when Prabowo and Wiranto became a candidate because she went to some of the institutions of the government of the last 10 years, most of them promised to solve the case."

"Her daughter said when she saw the television she want[ed] to broke the television because she's very upset that this person [has] become one of the leaders in our country," she added.

But Fernida says many Indonesians have short memories and are more concerned about their day-to-day economic circumstances than human rights.

And Prabowo has excited many with his talk on economics. "I have some real ideas on how to turn this country around from being a second-rate, third-rate country that's always begging for foreign aid, amidst wealth," he said.

"You know we are a very wealthy country but we don't seem to be able to get our act together. Our people are sentenced to be poor - our economic model, our economic system actually in essence perpetuates an oligarchy," he added.

Prabowo has made no secret of his own presidential ambitions. But his party Gerindra received less than five percent of the votes in April's parliamentary elections, below the 20 percent required for the party to field its own presidential candidate.

Jeffrey Winters, an Indonesian political expert from Northwestern University in the United States, thinks Ms. Megawati may have offered Prabowo key cabinet portfolios to get him on her ticket. But Winters says, he is unlikely to make a difference in the success of her campaign.

"There was no other way for her to make a ticket other than to cut such a deal. If she had not cut this deal it would also have been the end of Megawati as a political figure in Indonesia," he said. "So this is her last chance to pull off her political future and everything for Megawati is riding on this election. And it doesn't look very promising."

Safe choice for President

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (center) and former Central Bank Gov. Budiono hold the nation's presidential candidates electoral number in Jakarta, 30 May 2009
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (center) and former Central Bank Gov. Budiono hold the nation's presidential candidates electoral number in Jakarta, 30 May 2009
President Yudhoyono surprised many with his choice of Boediono, who goes by one name, as his running mate.

Boediono, who up until his candidacy served as the governor of Indonesia's central bank, impresses some voters with his pragmatic approach to economics.

Sunny Tanuwidjaja is a political analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta. He says Boediono is a safe choice for President Yudhoyono.

"For Yudhoyono he has an overwhelming popularity, right," said Tanuwidjaja. "He is trying to select a vice-presidential candidate that will not endanger his dominant position, that's his primary goals. And his second goal of course is to be able to maintain harmony among his coalition and by picking a neutral candidate I think he is able to sustain harmony."

Candidates must win more than 50 percent of the popular vote to avoid a runoff vote, which would likely be held in September.

Northwestern's Winters says that President Yudohoyono's popularity means that he is almost certain to win the July 8 election, and may not have to worry about having to woo voters in runoff.